Will Al Qadsiah win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.0K
$566.3
36.6¢ → 63.5¢
+73% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37.5¢ | $515.84 | $807.8 | +$331.88 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 35.1¢ | $263.6 | $488.55 | +$224.95 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
JI jiafan | Yesavg 60¢ | $478.77 | $478.77 | +$3.99 | 60% 1428-967 (2395) |
KL kleomarcus | Yesavg 60¢ | $203.99 | $203.99 | +$1.7 | 62% 1595-959 (2554) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.2¢ | $7.16 | $11.6 | +$4.44 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $9.61 | $8.87 | -$0.67 | 93% 2821-219 (3040) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$515.84
Value
$807.8
PnL
+$331.88
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$263.6
Value
$488.55
PnL
+$224.95
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$478.77
Value
$478.77
PnL
+$3.99
Record
60%
1428-967 (2395)
Invested
$203.99
Value
$203.99
PnL
+$1.7
Record
62%
1595-959 (2554)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.16
Value
$11.6
PnL
+$4.44
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$8.87
PnL
-$0.67
Record
93%
2821-219 (3040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.