FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club: O/U 6.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$33.05

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,968

Combined PnL-$33.35

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.1

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$0.3

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 96¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$11.28	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 99¢	$197.67	$153.08	-$44.59	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
poshposh	Underavg 95.8¢	$106.11	$107.73	+$1.62	61% 8640-5569 (14209)
AL alohaa<$100	Underavg 99.9¢	$47.99	$46.33	-$1.66	65% 1095-601 (1696)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$1.8	$2.1	+$0.3	54% 51828-43764 (95592)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,555.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$11.28

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$197.67

Value

$153.08

PnL

-$44.59

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$106.11

Value

$107.73

PnL

+$1.62

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

alohaa<$100

Under

Invested

$47.99

Value

$46.33

PnL

-$1.66

Record

65%

1095-601 (1696)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.