Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 18¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
2 arb excluded
$4.6K
-$139.64
47.9¢ → 17.5¢
-63% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 50.8¢ | $3.3K | $2.7K | -$529.88 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$438.52 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.8¢ | $1.9K | $902.21 | -$968.4 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$194.64 | 54% 51828-43764 (95592) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Overavg 50.9¢ | $355.73 | $330.43 | -$25.3 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.6¢ | $171.78 | $182.19 | +$10.41 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.9¢ | $183.95 | $148.25 | -$35.7 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 64.3¢ | $239.1 | $299.23 | +$60.14 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 62.5¢ | $52.76 | $49.81 | -$2.95 | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
LA LaarsYCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.6¢ | $44.38 | $40.79 | -$3.59 | 50% 3289-3245 (6534) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $20 | $23.14 | +$3.14 | 64% 913-510 (1423) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $11.03 | $10.5 | -$0.53 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $8.16 | $6.97 | -$1.19 | 76% 3669-1171 (4840) |
Invested
$3,252.31
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$529.88
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$1,334.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$194.64
Record
54%
51828-43764 (95592)
Invested
$355.73
Value
$330.43
PnL
-$25.3
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
Both legs:
Invested
$239.1
Value
$299.23
PnL
+$60.14
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$52.76
Value
$49.81
PnL
-$2.95
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
Invested
$44.38
Value
$40.79
PnL
-$3.59
Record
50%
3289-3245 (6534)
Invested
$20
Value
$23.14
PnL
+$3.14
Record
64%
913-510 (1423)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.03
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$0.53
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$6.97
PnL
-$1.19
Record
76%
3669-1171 (4840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.