FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club: O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 56¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 26

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 56.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,248

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under4 traders

Total Value$950.59

Total Shares2,826

Combined PnL-$50.44

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (3 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 54.5¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$950.72	54% 51828-43764 (95592)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 56.5¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$323.28	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$221.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.2¢	$319.64	$421.68	+$102.04
LA LaarsY	Overavg 75.9¢	$802.26	$919.02	+$116.76	50% 3289-3245 (6534)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 35.9¢	$803.5	$817.52	+$14.02	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 68.8¢	$155.69	$196.81	+$41.11	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
AR ARocky33ARB<$100	Underavg 24¢	$285.38	$173.48	-$111.9	76% 3669-1171 (4840)
└ Under leg	Underavg 24¢	$249.3	$135.2	-$114.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 82¢	$36.08	$38.28	+$2.2
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 40.4¢	$149.54	$48.14	-$101.4	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 25.2¢	$26.9	$43.56	+$16.67	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 18.6¢	$21.1	$41.37	+$20.27	50% 9389-9311 (18700)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 74.2¢	$36.85	$39.61	+$2.76	61% 8640-5569 (14209)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,593.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$950.72

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,703.37

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$323.28

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

Both legs:

Over$1,383.7356.5¢+$221.24

Under$319.6426.2¢+$102.04

LaarsY

Over

Invested

$802.26

Value

$919.02

PnL

+$116.76

Record

50%

3289-3245 (6534)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$803.5

Value

$817.52

PnL

+$14.02

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$155.69

Value

$196.81

PnL

+$41.11

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

ARocky33ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$285.38

Value

$173.48

PnL

-$111.9

Record

76%

3669-1171 (4840)

Both legs:

Under$249.324¢-$114.1

Over$36.0882¢+$2.2

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$149.54

Value

$48.14

PnL

-$101.4

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.9

Value

$43.56

PnL

+$16.67

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.1

Value

$41.37

PnL

+$20.27

Record

50%

9389-9311 (18700)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$36.85

Value

$39.61

PnL

+$2.76

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (3 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.