Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club: O/U 0.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$6.1K
$464
4.3¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 4.3¢ | $3.7K | $4.2K | +$456.49 | 60% 39756-26331 (66087) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 4¢ | $92.8 | $1.1K | -$1.16 | 54% 51398-43356 (94754) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 95.2¢ | $735.86 | $751.9 | +$16.04 | 51% 21726-21125 (42851) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 95.2¢ | $590.86 | $590.62 | -$0.24 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 4.3¢ | $145 | $161.28 | +$16.28 | |
 HRTradingCTR | Underavg 4.4¢ | $95.71 | $104.33 | +$8.62 | 55% 2151-1765 (3916) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.1¢ | $1.28 | $1.35 | +$0.06 | 50% 10817-10949 (21766) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $1 | $0.99 | -$0.01 | 49% 17262-17622 (34884) |
Invested
$3,701.87
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$456.49
Record
60%
39756-26331 (66087)
RN1CTRInvested
$92.8
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$1.16
Record
54%
51398-43356 (94754)
Invested
$735.86
Value
$751.9
PnL
+$16.04
Record
51%
21726-21125 (42851)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTRInvested
$95.71
Value
$104.33
PnL
+$8.62
Record
55%
2151-1765 (3916)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
10817-10949 (21766)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
17262-17622 (34884)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.