Will FK Neftchi Fargona win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$937.64

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 82.5¢

+49% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,593

Combined PnL+$974.53

Yes3 traders

Total Value$475.62

Total Shares2,068

Combined PnL-$36.9

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OL OldZz	Noavg 55.1¢	$2.5K	$3.5K	+$964.49	46% 85-99 (184)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$318.16	57% 1560-1154 (2714)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$108.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1.0K	$620.02	-$426.45
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$504.51	$468.72	-$35.79	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$197.42	$179.49	-$17.93	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$138.49	$120.91	-$17.58
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$58.93	$58.57	-$0.36
poshposhARB<$100	Yesavg 48.2¢	$125.18	$121.99	-$3.19	61% 8640-5569 (14209)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.3¢	$55.79	$88.89	+$33.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.2¢	$69.4	$33.1	-$36.29
KL kleomarcus<$100	Noavg 75¢	$38.93	$39.7	+$0.78	63% 1590-954 (2544)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 49¢	$77.24	$31.43	+$9.27	64% 913-510 (1423)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.22	$4.04	-$0.18	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$3.79	$2.86	-$0.93	54% 5749-4837 (10586)

OldZz

Invested

$2,478.01

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$964.49

Record

46%

85-99 (184)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$2,419.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$318.16

Record

57%

1560-1154 (2714)

Both legs:

No$1,373.1276.5¢+$108.29

Yes$1,046.4729.5¢-$426.45

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$504.51

Value

$468.72

PnL

-$35.79

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$197.42

Value

$179.49

PnL

-$17.93

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

Both legs:

Invested

$125.18

Value

$121.99

PnL

-$3.19

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

Both legs:

No$55.7948.3¢+$33.11

Yes$69.448.2¢-$36.29

kleomarcus<$100

Invested

$38.93

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$0.78

Record

63%

1590-954 (2544)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$77.24

Value

$31.43

PnL

+$9.27

Record

64%

913-510 (1423)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$0.18

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$0.93

Record

54%

5749-4837 (10586)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.