Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (94%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
1
Over 100%
$1.41
-$0.63
Research grade
AvoidOver at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $2.04 | $1.41 | -$0.63 | 61% 8640-5569 (14209) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.