Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (95%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 5.0¢ · $39 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
2
Under 100%
$38.67
-$72.87
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.2¢ | $91.54 | $36.29 | -$55.25 | 61% 8640-5569 (14209) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $20 | $2.38 | -$17.62 | 64% 913-510 (1423) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.