Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 49¢ · $866 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$866.01
$5.23
68.5¢ → 48.5¢
-29% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Noavg 69.7¢ | $617.64 | $611.62 | -$6.02 | 57% 1560-1154 (2714) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $154.67 | $162.98 | +$8.31 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $46.22 | $49.49 | +$3.27 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $32.43 | $32.66 | +$0.23 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $6.9 | -$0.6 | 54% 5749-4837 (10586) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.2 | $1.21 | +$0.01 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $1.15 | +$0.02 | 61% 8640-5569 (14209) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$617.64
Value
$611.62
PnL
-$6.02
Record
57%
1560-1154 (2714)
Invested
$154.67
Value
$162.98
PnL
+$8.31
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$46.22
Value
$49.49
PnL
+$3.27
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
Invested
$32.43
Value
$32.66
PnL
+$0.23
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.6
Record
54%
5749-4837 (10586)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
61%
8640-5569 (14209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.