Will Newcastle United Jets win on 2026-10-27?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 86¢ · $159 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 25%
$159.49
-$95.14
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $61.68 | $57.57 | -$4.11 | 59% 44203-30575 (74778) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $53.79 | $53.61 | -$0.18 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $32.67 | $30.56 | -$2.11 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081 | Noavg 84¢ | $106.5 | $17.75 | -$88.75 | 50% 216-214 (430) |
Invested
$61.68
Value
$57.57
PnL
-$4.11
Record
59%
44203-30575 (74778)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$53.79
Value
$53.61
PnL
-$0.18
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.67
Value
$30.56
PnL
-$2.11
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
Invested
$106.5
Value
$17.75
PnL
-$88.75
Record
50%
216-214 (430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.