Will Tractor Tabriz win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.8K
$77.91
91.8¢ → 88.9¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$84.41 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.8¢ | $356.3 | $345.53 | -$10.77 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $250.11 | $225.86 | -$24.25 | 57% 1560-1154 (2714) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $81 | $109.35 | +$28.35 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.5 | $0.68 | +$0.18 | 54% 5749-4838 (10587) |
Invested
$1,080.57
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$84.41
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$356.3
Value
$345.53
PnL
-$10.77
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
oieshfn345Invested
$250.11
Value
$225.86
PnL
-$24.25
Record
57%
1560-1154 (2714)
Invested
$81
Value
$109.35
PnL
+$28.35
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
5749-4838 (10587)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.