Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Ain FC vs. Tractor Tabriz: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 29¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$1.4K
$51.77
50.4¢ → 29¢
-42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FF ff3364CTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $984.21 | $1.0K | +$60.72 | 50% 770-765 (1535) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 58¢ | $177.56 | $177.56 | -$0 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 57¢ | $136.8 | $123.6 | -$13.2 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 55.6¢ | $13.95 | $18.17 | +$4.22 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $10.69 | $10 | -$0.4 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.05 | -$0.2 | 64% 913-510 (1423) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $2.58 | +$0.63 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
Invested
$984.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$60.72
Record
50%
770-765 (1535)
Invested
$177.56
Value
$177.56
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
Invested
$136.8
Value
$123.6
PnL
-$13.2
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$18.17
PnL
+$4.22
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.69
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.4
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.2
Record
64%
913-510 (1423)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.95
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.63
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.