Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Ain FC vs. Tractor Tabriz: Al Ain FC O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $457 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
$457.27
-$98.85
37.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 35¢ | $356.94 | $311.15 | -$45.79 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 HRTradingCTR | Underavg 44.6¢ | $114.41 | $78.23 | -$36.18 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 38.1¢ | $84.75 | $67.86 | -$16.89 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.