Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Al Ain FC, while the market favors Tractor Tabriz (83%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Al Ain FC (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Al Ain FC (67%) · Al Ain FC at 17¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Al Ain FC
3
Al Ain FC 67%
2 arb excluded
$4.3K
$139.85
41.4¢ → 17¢
-59% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidAl Ain FC at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Tractor Tabriz 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Al Ain FCavg 40.5¢ | $2.9K | $3.5K | +$638.65 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
| └ Al Ain FC leg | Al Ain FCavg 40.5¢ | $1.8K | $2.4K | +$617.15 | |
| └ Tractor Tabriz leg | Tractor Tabrizavg 44.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$21.5 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Al Ain FCavg 41¢ | $443.15 | $583.67 | +$140.51 | 53% 5255-4588 (9843) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Tractor Tabrizavg 48¢ | $170.42 | $195.8 | +$25.38 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
| └ Al Ain FC leg | Al Ain FCavg 40¢ | $85.14 | $109.62 | +$24.48 | |
| └ Tractor Tabriz leg | Tractor Tabrizavg 48¢ | $85.28 | $86.18 | +$0.9 | |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Al Ain FCavg 57.8¢ | $16.98 | $15.86 | -$1.12 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Tractor Tabrizavg 44¢ | $13.68 | $14.15 | +$0.47 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$2,899.79
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$638.65
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Both legs:
Invested
$443.15
Value
$583.67
PnL
+$140.51
Record
53%
5255-4588 (9843)
Invested
$170.42
Value
$195.8
PnL
+$25.38
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.98
Value
$15.86
PnL
-$1.12
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.68
Value
$14.15
PnL
+$0.47
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.