Will Al Ain FC vs. Tractor Tabriz end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.7K
$391.54
82¢ → 61¢
-26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$303.87 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$82.42 | 57% 1560-1154 (2714) |
FO foooool | Noavg 83.1¢ | $185.25 | $187.28 | +$2.03 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $27.84 | $28 | +$0.16 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $14.37 | $16.28 | +$1.91 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $5.53 | $6.89 | +$1.35 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $0.9 | -$0.2 | 54% 5749-4838 (10587) |
Invested
$1,040.11
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$303.87
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
oieshfn345Invested
$1,074.74
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$82.42
Record
57%
1560-1154 (2714)
Invested
$185.25
Value
$187.28
PnL
+$2.03
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$27.84
Value
$28
PnL
+$0.16
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
poshposh<$100Invested
$14.37
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$1.91
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
$6.89
PnL
+$1.35
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
5749-4838 (10587)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.