Will Al Ain FC win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$515.99

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 50.5¢

-31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL+$86.48

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,902

Combined PnL+$429.51

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 74.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$89.15	57% 1560-1154 (2714)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 29.5¢	$776.99	$1.2K	+$394.29	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Yesavg 70¢	$350	$350	+$0	65% 1130-613 (1743)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 81.9¢	$361.77	$293.37	-$68.4	50% 9393-9316 (18709)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.9¢	$303.35	$190.68	-$112.66
└ No leg	Noavg 27.6¢	$58.42	$102.68	+$44.26
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 22.7¢	$43.01	$73.97	+$30.97	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$49.98	$49.98	+$0	50% 9550-9470 (19020)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$99.69	$27.92	+$2.29	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$23.7	$21	-$2.7	64% 913-510 (1423)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 29.2¢	$9.3	$9.57	+$0.27	54% 5749-4838 (10587)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$2.76	$4.45	+$1.69	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$2.23	$2.26	+$0.03	65% 1616-869 (2485)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,236.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$89.15

Record

57%

1560-1154 (2714)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$776.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$394.29

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1130-613 (1743)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$361.77

Value

$293.37

PnL

-$68.4

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Both legs:

Yes$303.3581.9¢-$112.66

No$58.4227.6¢+$44.26

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$43.01

Value

$73.97

PnL

+$30.97

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.98

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9550-9470 (19020)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$99.69

Value

$27.92

PnL

+$2.29

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.7

Value

$21

PnL

-$2.7

Record

64%

913-510 (1423)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

5749-4838 (10587)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$1.69

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

1616-869 (2485)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.