Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Al Ahli Saudi FC vs. Al Gharafa SC: O/U 3.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 49¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$11.15
52.9¢ → 48.5¢
-8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $494.57 | $313.19 | -$181.38 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 66.7¢ | $161.56 | $170.81 | +$9.26 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 69¢ | $333.01 | $142.37 | -$190.64 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 46¢ | $235.58 | $261.31 | +$25.73 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 54¢ | $213.75 | $209.79 | -$3.96 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 55¢ | $164.31 | $143.37 | -$5.04 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $31.13 | $56.89 | +$25.76 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 62¢ | $103.43 | $51.17 | -$52.26 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
RO Rocky31CTR<$100 | Overavg 57.4¢ | $45.37 | $41.92 | -$3.45 | 73% 1357-513 (1870) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.5¢ | $22.44 | $24.51 | +$2.07 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
Invested
$494.57
Value
$313.19
PnL
-$181.38
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Both legs:
Invested
$235.58
Value
$261.31
PnL
+$25.73
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$213.75
Value
$209.79
PnL
-$3.96
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$164.31
Value
$143.37
PnL
-$5.04
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$31.13
Value
$56.89
PnL
+$25.76
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$103.43
Value
$51.17
PnL
-$52.26
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$45.37
Value
$41.92
PnL
-$3.45
Record
73%
1357-513 (1870)
Invested
$22.44
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$2.07
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.