Al Ahli Saudi FC vs. Al Gharafa SC: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held

Over>99¢Under<1¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$78.86

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 100¢

+51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,751

Combined PnL-$556.43

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,104

Combined PnL+$635.28

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 58.3¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$379.58	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
MY myxi	Overavg 77¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$13	67% 291-143 (434)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 25.5¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$244.54	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 30.9¢	$874.75	$1.3K	+$384.78	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
FO foooool	Overavg 64.1¢	$202.27	$187.84	-$14.43	50% 9550-9470 (19020)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 95¢	$308.46	$160.72	-$147.73	82% 2247-510 (2757)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 32.7¢	$155.09	$159.1	+$4.01	50% 9393-9316 (18709)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 51¢	$53.08	$51.52	-$1.56	73% 1357-513 (1870)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 34.4¢	$23.75	$27.63	+$3.88	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$22.5	$20.58	-$1.93	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 55¢	$13.34	$13.22	-$0.12	61% 8644-5579 (14223)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,635.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$379.58

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

myxi

Over

Invested

$2,002

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$13

Record

67%

291-143 (434)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,234.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$244.54

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$874.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$384.78

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

foooool

Over

Invested

$202.27

Value

$187.84

PnL

-$14.43

Record

50%

9550-9470 (19020)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$308.46

Value

$160.72

PnL

-$147.73

Record

82%

2247-510 (2757)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$155.09

Value

$159.1

PnL

+$4.01

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$53.08

Value

$51.52

PnL

-$1.56

Record

73%

1357-513 (1870)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.75

Value

$27.63

PnL

+$3.88

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.5

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$1.93

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$13.34

Value

$13.22

PnL

-$0.12

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.