Spread: Al Ahli Saudi FC (-2.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Al Gharafa SC (17%) · Al Gharafa SC at 90¢ · $816 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Al Gharafa SC
6
Al Gharafa SC 17%
$815.86
-$69.71
Research grade
NeutralAl Gharafa SC at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Al Gharafa SCavg 63.2¢ | $427.57 | $416.7 | -$10.87 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 44.3¢ | $271.66 | $201.46 | -$70.2 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 40.6¢ | $137.53 | $104.72 | +$14.14 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 45.1¢ | $75.27 | $72.54 | -$2.73 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
RO Rocky31CTR<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 45¢ | $13.5 | $13.05 | -$0.45 | 73% 1357-513 (1870) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 37.4¢ | $7.5 | $7.38 | +$0.41 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$427.57
Value
$416.7
PnL
-$10.87
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$271.66
Value
$201.46
PnL
-$70.2
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$137.53
Value
$104.72
PnL
+$14.14
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$75.27
Value
$72.54
PnL
-$2.73
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$0.45
Record
73%
1357-513 (1870)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.38
PnL
+$0.41
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.