Spread: Al Ahli Saudi FC (-1.5)
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Al Ahli Saudi FC (60%) · Al Ahli Saudi FC at 66¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Al Ahli Saudi FC
10
Al Ahli Saudi FC 60%
$5.7K
$1.0K
45.8¢ → 66¢
+44% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Ahli Saudi FC at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 49¢ | $1.7K | $2.3K | +$587.84 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Al Gharafa SCavg 34.4¢ | $552.07 | $1.4K | +$853.99 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 VeryLucky888 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 39¢ | $589.82 | $997.72 | +$408.91 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
KM kmak1CTR | Al Gharafa SCavg 74¢ | $1,000 | $459.46 | -$540.54 | 84% 138-26 (164) |
 poshposhCTR | Al Gharafa SCavg 88¢ | $627.23 | $257.99 | -$369.24 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
 0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 63¢ | $155.12 | $162.5 | +$7.39 | 65% 1130-613 (1743) |
 RN1 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 25¢ | $54.81 | $144.69 | +$89.88 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 29¢ | $9.06 | $20.63 | +$11.56 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
LO looppauCTR<$100 | Al Gharafa SCavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $10.2 | -$19.77 | 99% 9169-41 (9210) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi FCavg 56.6¢ | $3.69 | $4.3 | +$0.61 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$1,695.8
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$587.84
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$552.07
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$853.99
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
VeryLucky888Invested
$589.82
Value
$997.72
PnL
+$408.91
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$459.46
PnL
-$540.54
Record
84%
138-26 (164)
poshposhCTRInvested
$627.23
Value
$257.99
PnL
-$369.24
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22Invested
$155.12
Value
$162.5
PnL
+$7.39
Record
65%
1130-613 (1743)
RN1Invested
$54.81
Value
$144.69
PnL
+$89.88
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$9.06
Value
$20.63
PnL
+$11.56
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$19.77
Record
99%
9169-41 (9210)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.69
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
Al Ahli Saudi FC — $2.3K
UpTheBlues
CTRAl Gharafa SC — $1.4K
VeryLucky888
Al Ahli Saudi FC — $997.72
kmak1
CTRAl Gharafa SC — $459.46
poshposh
CTRAl Gharafa SC — $257.99
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22
Al Ahli Saudi FC — $162.5
RN1
Al Ahli Saudi FC — $144.69
LuckyLoo
Al Ahli Saudi FC — $20.63
looppau
CTRAl Gharafa SC — $10.2
HRTrading
Al Ahli Saudi FC — $4.3