Will Al Gharafa SC win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.6K
$5.5
97.6¢ → 93¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $912.91 | $879.57 | -$33.35 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.4¢ | $418.1 | $410.08 | -$8.03 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
FO foooool | Noavg 95¢ | $200 | $196.84 | -$3.16 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $28.87 | $76.3 | +$47.44 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $37.4 | $35.74 | -$1.66 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $13.34 | $17.51 | +$4.17 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.06 | $1.14 | +$0.09 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
RN1Invested
$912.91
Value
$879.57
PnL
-$33.35
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$418.1
Value
$410.08
PnL
-$8.03
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
Invested
$200
Value
$196.84
PnL
-$3.16
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$28.87
Value
$76.3
PnL
+$47.44
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Invested
$37.4
Value
$35.74
PnL
-$1.66
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$13.34
Value
$17.51
PnL
+$4.17
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.