Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
💧
Weak
No
5
No 60%
$7.3K
-$264
94¢ → 89.3¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
499h old
Late Entry
High
Score 90/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 94.4¢ | $6.5K | $5.8K | -$329.29 | 79% 359-93 (452) |
 Alicia | Noavg 93.2¢ | $175.23 | $767.01 | -$14.55 | 78% 347-100 (447) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 89.6¢ | $447.12 | $445.91 | -$1.21 | 59% 199-136 (335) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $110.76 | $190.8 | +$80.04 | 53% 134-118 (252) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $4.27 | $5.29 | +$1.02 | 50% 1045-1060 (2105) |
Invested
$6,543.49
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$329.29
Record
79%
359-93 (452)
AliciaInvested
$175.23
Value
$767.01
PnL
-$14.55
Record
78%
347-100 (447)
PippiTraderInvested
$447.12
Value
$445.91
PnL
-$1.21
Record
59%
199-136 (335)
Invested
$110.76
Value
$190.8
PnL
+$80.04
Record
53%
134-118 (252)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
1045-1060 (2105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.