Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$370.34

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,588

Combined PnL+$397.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$57.56

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$27.34

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 61.9¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$397.68	66% 723-371 (1094)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$38.85	$28.35	-$10.5	64% 2118-1203 (3321)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$42.5	$27	-$15.5	51% 1524-1493 (3017)
Ryxon21CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$3.55	$2.21	-$1.34	71% 268-112 (380)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$2,221.56

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$397.68

Record

66%

723-371 (1094)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.85

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$10.5

Record

64%

2118-1203 (3321)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.5

Value

$27

PnL

-$15.5

Record

51%

1524-1493 (3017)

Ryxon21CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$1.34

Record

71%

268-112 (380)

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.8%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.