Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$281.61

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 68.5¢

-17% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,100

Combined PnL-$303.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$79.47

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$21.89

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

469h old

Late Entry

High

Score 60/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (1 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PH phdcapital	Noavg 84¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$310	93% 241-17 (258)
DI Dimpled-FoalARB<$100	Noavg 52¢	$221.65	$266.06	+$50.84	53% 134-118 (252)
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$114.4	$147.4	+$31.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.5¢	$107.25	$118.66	+$18.94
solwizzo-onX<$100	Noavg 62¢	$62	$67	+$6.5	66% 330-172 (502)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$46.98	$66.67	+$19.69	50% 1045-1060 (2105)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$10.6	$12.8	+$2.2	62% 381-233 (614)

phdcapital

Invested

$1,680

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$310

Record

93%

241-17 (258)

Dimpled-FoalARB<$100

Invested

$221.65

Value

$266.06

PnL

+$50.84

Record

53%

134-118 (252)

Both legs:

No$114.452¢+$31.9

Yes$107.2528.5¢+$18.94

solwizzo-onX<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$67

PnL

+$6.5

Record

66%

330-172 (502)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.98

Value

$66.67

PnL

+$19.69

Record

50%

1045-1060 (2105)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$2.2

Record

62%

381-233 (614)

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

469h old

Late Entry

High

Score 60/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (1 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.