Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Daria Kasatkina

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Daria Kasatkina (57%) · Daria Kasatkina at 86¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 1

Kimberly Birrell14¢Daria Kasatkina86¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Daria Kasatkina

Consensus Traders

Daria Kasatkina 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 85.5¢

+52% since entry · 8 traders

Smart Money Signal

Daria Kasatkina

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kimberly Birrell14%

Daria Kasatkina86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daria Kasatkina8 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares27,214

Combined PnL-$949.22

Kimberly Birrell6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares9,369

Combined PnL-$707.36

Daria Kasatkina — 57%Kimberly Birrell — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Daria Kasatkina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKimberly Birrell 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpKimberly Birrell 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrKimberly Birrell 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedKimberly Birrell 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kimberly Birrell 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Daria Kasatkinaavg 70.5¢	$18.0K	$16.8K	$-1.3K	55% 43011-35367 (78378)
└ Kimberly Birrell leg	Kimberly Birrellavg 41.4¢	$7.8K	$9.9K	+$2.2K
└ Daria Kasatkina leg	Daria Kasatkinaavg 70.5¢	$10.3K	$6.9K	$-3.4K
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Daria Kasatkinaavg 48¢	$9.6K	$9.4K	-$200	52% 127-119 (246)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Daria Kasatkinaavg 79.6¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$115.61	53% 12053-10832 (22885)
HO HomeRunHazard	Daria Kasatkinaavg 81.2¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$844.44	55% 11679-9574 (21253)
tradecraftCTR	Kimberly Birrellavg 51.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$285.65	52% 5479-5082 (10561)
CH chiefphiCTR	Kimberly Birrellavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$20	52% 54-49 (103)
GH ghostorder	Daria Kasatkinaavg 85¢	$913.98	$951.61	+$37.63	68% 3907-1866 (5773)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Daria Kasatkinaavg 67.5¢	$675	$855	+$180	51% 945-911 (1856)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kimberly Birrellavg 52¢	$783.33	$604.78	+$15.06	58% 31291-22609 (53900)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Kimberly Birrellavg 40.6¢	$1.2K	$540.84	-$263.19	60% 3511-2386 (5897)
└ Daria Kasatkina leg	Daria Kasatkinaavg 58.6¢	$275.61	$416.01	+$52.59
└ Kimberly Birrell leg	Kimberly Birrellavg 40.6¢	$440.17	$124.83	-$315.78
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Kimberly Birrellavg 20.4¢	$459.12	$303.81	-$155.31	68% 30682-14740 (45422)
OL olivereaCTR	Kimberly Birrellavg 53¢	$300	$300	-$2.83	58% 264-188 (452)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Kimberly Birrellavg 34¢	$429.04	$170.41	-$258.63	59% 13706-9524 (23230)
EF efntrick<$100	Daria Kasatkinaavg 60.4¢	$98.61	$92.01	-$6.6	48% 3434-3705 (7139)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Daria Kasatkinaavg 47¢	$25.38	$25.38	+$0.27	54% 13611-11436 (25047)
PA pauleta23<$100	Daria Kasatkinaavg 48.8¢	$13	$12.53	-$0.47	71% 17250-6966 (24216)

RN1ARB<$100

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$18,034.65

Value

$16.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

43011-35367 (78378)

Both legs:

Kimberly Birrell$7,750.5241.4¢+$2.2K

Daria Kasatkina$10,284.1270.5¢$-3.4K

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$9,599.98

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$200

Record

52%

127-119 (246)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$2,538.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$115.61

Record

53%

12053-10832 (22885)

HomeRunHazard

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$2,003.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$844.44

Record

55%

11679-9574 (21253)

tradecraftCTR

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$1,113.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$285.65

Record

52%

5479-5082 (10561)

chiefphiCTR

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$1,079.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

ghostorder

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$913.98

Value

$951.61

PnL

+$37.63

Record

68%

3907-1866 (5773)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$675

Value

$855

PnL

+$180

Record

51%

945-911 (1856)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$783.33

Value

$604.78

PnL

+$15.06

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$1,203.19

Value

$540.84

PnL

-$263.19

Record

60%

3511-2386 (5897)

Both legs:

Daria Kasatkina$275.6158.6¢+$52.59

Kimberly Birrell$440.1740.6¢-$315.78

UpTheBluesCTR

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$459.12

Value

$303.81

PnL

-$155.31

Record

68%

30682-14740 (45422)

olivereaCTR

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

-$2.83

Record

58%

264-188 (452)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Kimberly Birrell

Invested

$429.04

Value

$170.41

PnL

-$258.63

Record

59%

13706-9524 (23230)

efntrick<$100

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$98.61

Value

$92.01

PnL

-$6.6

Record

48%

3434-3705 (7139)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$25.38

Value

$25.38

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

13611-11436 (25047)

pauleta23<$100

Daria Kasatkina

Invested

$13

Value

$12.53

PnL

-$0.47

Record

71%

17250-6966 (24216)

Smart Money Signal

Daria Kasatkina

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Daria Kasatkina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKimberly Birrell 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpKimberly Birrell 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrKimberly Birrell 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedKimberly Birrell 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kimberly Birrell 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daria Kasatkina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.