Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 25¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$693.27

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 24.5¢

-55% since entry · 5 traders

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares9,160

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares13,207

Combined PnL$-4.0K

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

150h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 30/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luck00004	Noavg 39¢	$3.9K	$6.9K	+$3.3K	46% 26-31 (57)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 58.8¢	$6.1K	$2.4K	$-3.6K	62% 381-233 (614)
SS ssddssdCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$964.25	$630.03	-$334.22	50% 236-239 (475)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$75	$21	-$50.5	38% 542-903 (1445)
PippiTraderCTR	Yesavg 62¢	$1.0K	$16	-$6.76	59% 199-136 (335)
kekkoneCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$7.34	$5.6	-$1.73	73% 1110-408 (1518)

luck00004

Invested

$3,900

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

46%

26-31 (57)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,071.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

62%

381-233 (614)

ssddssdCTR

Yes

Invested

$964.25

Value

$630.03

PnL

-$334.22

Record

50%

236-239 (475)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$21

PnL

-$50.5

Record

38%

542-903 (1445)

PippiTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,016.22

Value

$16

PnL

-$6.76

Record

59%

199-136 (335)

kekkoneCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.34

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$1.73

Record

73%

1110-408 (1518)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

150h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 30/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.3%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$280.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

380.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.