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Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$12.6K
Combined PnL
-$193.68
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes7%
No93%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$12.1K
Total Shares12,886
Combined PnL-$43.7
Yes1 trader
Total Value$502.28
Total Shares6,976
Combined PnL-$149.99
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 96.3¢ | $8.0K | $7.1K | -$150.74 | 60% 780-529 (1309) |
PK pkz | No | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$107.04 | 57% 429-329 (758) |
 Optimus-CTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $560 | $502.28 | -$149.99 | 61% 1182-748 (1930) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance94.0%
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$6.35
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
106.3
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xb2ff6ed9...c07d4b
Slug
will-trump-rename-an-ocean-by-december-31-2026