Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔄
Contrarian
Yes
1
Yes 100%
$47.95
-$73.7
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CarCTR | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $117.66 | $47.95 | -$73.7 | 68% 4054-1938 (5992) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.