Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 970m by October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
⚡
Medium
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$11.0K
$402.64
95.5¢ → 98.3¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 94.7¢ | $6.6K | $6.5K | +$253.27 | 57% 243-187 (430) |
 0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $910.49 | $3.4K | +$90.71 | 71% 63-26 (89) |
 Jellow2 | Yesavg 92.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$62.45 | 64% 291-167 (458) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.1¢ | $18.84 | $15.5 | -$3.79 | 17% 3034-14639 (17673) |
Invested
$6,592.1
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$253.27
Record
57%
243-187 (430)
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0bInvested
$910.49
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$90.71
Record
71%
63-26 (89)
Jellow2Invested
$1,001.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$62.45
Record
64%
291-167 (458)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$18.84
Value
$15.5
PnL
-$3.79
Record
17%
3034-14639 (17673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.