Back to Markets
Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 84¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 3
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 33%
Total Value
$248.63
Combined PnL
$1.19
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes17%
No84%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$167
Total Shares200
Combined PnL-$1
Yes2 traders
Total Value$81.63
Total Shares495
Combined PnL+$2.19
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 84¢ | $168 | $167 | -$1 | 68% 4054-1938 (5992) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $115.74 | $78.33 | +$4.09 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $5.2 | $3.3 | -$1.9 | 73% 365-137 (502) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance85.0%
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$17.61
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
117.6
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x665f82b9...85a303
Slug
will-the-republicans-win-mahoning-county-in-the-ohio-senate-race-in-2026