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Will the Republican Party win the NJ-08 House seat?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 33%
Total Value
$13.6K
Combined PnL
-$85.62
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes2%
No98%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$13.2K
Total Shares13,483
Combined PnL+$134.84
Yes2 traders
Total Value$419.3
Total Shares25,412
Combined PnL-$220.46
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Noavg 97¢ | $13.5K | $13.2K | +$134.84 | 52% 4133-3868 (8001) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $637.5 | $412.5 | -$225 | 53% 3017-2635 (5652) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.27 | $6.8 | +$4.54 | 48% 1995-2156 (4151) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance99.0%
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.97
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
101.0
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x0bb1b93d...3c2576
Slug
will-the-republican-party-win-the-nj-08-house-seat