Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 74¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$19.46

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,006

Combined PnL-$16.96

No1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,465

Combined PnL+$36.42

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 70.8¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$16.96	46% 427-495 (922)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Noavg 29¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$36.42	59% 171-121 (292)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$4,251.41

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$16.96

Record

46%

427-495 (922)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Invested

$2,165.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$36.42

Record

59%

171-121 (292)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.8%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.