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Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 95¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 33%
Total Value
$10.7K
Combined PnL
$80.68
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes6%
No95%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$10.2K
Total Shares10,608
Combined PnL+$37.14
Yes2 traders
Total Value$514.53
Total Shares9,355
Combined PnL+$43.54
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Noavg 96¢ | $10.6K | $10.2K | +$37.14 | 52% 4133-3868 (8001) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $252.01 | $462.03 | +$54.6 | 53% 3017-2635 (5652) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $45.91 | $52.5 | -$11.06 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance95.7%
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$4.52
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
104.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x544f00d1...6ab2eb
Slug
will-the-republican-party-win-the-ca-46-house-seat