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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
💧
Weak
No
5
No 60%
$2.3K
$630.23
39.6¢ → 73.6¢
+86% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Late Entry
High
Score 60/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE dedidanc | Noavg 57.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$292.92 | 57% 81-62 (143) |
KI KiernanMeister | Noavg 5.4¢ | $40.61 | $558.23 | +$515.74 | 52% 974-898 (1872) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876 | Noavg 20.3¢ | $72.12 | $263.3 | +$191.89 | 46% 102-121 (223) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 86¢ | $349.15 | $105.56 | -$244.41 | 50% 356-354 (710) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Yesavg 84.4¢ | $182.11 | $56.19 | -$125.92 | 73% 365-137 (502) |
Invested
$1,069.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$292.92
Record
57%
81-62 (143)
Invested
$40.61
Value
$558.23
PnL
+$515.74
Record
52%
974-898 (1872)
Invested
$72.12
Value
$263.3
PnL
+$191.89
Record
46%
102-121 (223)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$349.15
Value
$105.56
PnL
-$244.41
Record
50%
356-354 (710)
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$182.11
Value
$56.19
PnL
-$125.92
Record
73%
365-137 (502)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.