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Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $671 held · ends Dec 31
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
4
No 75%
Total Value
$671.13
Combined PnL
-$27.64
Smart Money Entry
93¢ → 91.8¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes8%
No92%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$668.37
Total Shares709
Combined PnL-$27.56
Yes1 trader
Total Value$2.77
Total Shares49
Combined PnL-$0.07
No — 75%Yes — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 92.7¢ | $334.38 | $250.68 | -$3.7 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 91.6¢ | $238.21 | $232.73 | -$19.94 | 47% 1705-1905 (3610) |
AV aviato | Noavg 95¢ | $191.41 | $184.96 | -$3.93 | 86% 2370-397 (2767) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $2.84 | $2.77 | -$0.07 | 64% 2118-1203 (3321) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance93.1%
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$7.45
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
107.4
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x494a92d0...4836c3
Slug
will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt25-before-2027