Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$426.7

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 73.5¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,201

Combined PnL+$518.56

Yes1 trader

Total Value$198.33

Total Shares748

Combined PnL-$91.86

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

122h old

Late Entry

High

Score 60/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL Gladius7	Noavg 63.4¢	$45.09	$5.0K	+$518.18	46% 78-90 (168)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 38.8¢	$290.19	$198.33	-$91.86	56% 3177-2515 (5692)
crypto-basenji	Noavg 75.7¢	$189.34	$181.25	-$8.09	39% 146-229 (375)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 61¢	$47.13	$56.02	+$8.89	47% 1705-1905 (3610)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 73¢	$30.53	$30.32	-$0.42	42% 1456-1999 (3455)

Gladius7

Invested

$45.09

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$518.18

Record

46%

78-90 (168)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$290.19

Value

$198.33

PnL

-$91.86

Record

56%

3177-2515 (5692)

crypto-basenji

Invested

$189.34

Value

$181.25

PnL

-$8.09

Record

39%

146-229 (375)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$47.13

Value

$56.02

PnL

+$8.89

Record

47%

1705-1905 (3610)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$30.53

Value

$30.32

PnL

-$0.42

Record

42%

1456-1999 (3455)

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

122h old

Late Entry

High

Score 60/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.