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Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $19K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$18.8K
Combined PnL
$1.1K
Smart Money Entry
83.7¢ → 95.9¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes4%
No96%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$18.8K
Total Shares19,590
Combined PnL+$1.1K
Yes1 trader
Total Value$36.87
Total Shares899
Combined PnL+$1.12
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 83.4¢ | $3.5K | $18.5K | +$1.1K | 65% 476-253 (729) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 95.6¢ | $265.16 | $315.66 | +$12.38 | 80% 10078-2569 (12647) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $26.31 | $36.87 | +$1.12 | 48% 1995-2156 (4151) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance96.9%
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$3.20
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
103.2
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xa72d5a23...0471ba
Slug
will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by-december-31-391