Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
💧
Weak
No
5
No 40%
$2.7K
-$212.06
87.7¢ → 82.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1402h old
Late Entry
High
Score 90/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 88.2¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$193.99 | 57% 14639-10984 (25623) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $162.14 | $165 | +$2.86 | 73% 2877-1050 (3927) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $110.62 | $116.34 | +$5.71 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
88 881112CTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $27.5 | $112.52 | +$45.62 | 38% 542-903 (1445) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $176.93 | $111.64 | -$72.26 | 47% 1705-1905 (3610) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$2,367.42
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$193.99
Record
57%
14639-10984 (25623)
Tenebrus7Invested
$162.14
Value
$165
PnL
+$2.86
Record
73%
2877-1050 (3927)
Invested
$110.62
Value
$116.34
PnL
+$5.71
Record
36%
12736-22337 (35073)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$112.52
PnL
+$45.62
Record
38%
542-903 (1445)
Invested
$176.93
Value
$111.64
PnL
-$72.26
Record
47%
1705-1905 (3610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.