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Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
4
No 100%
Total Value
$7.7K
Combined PnL
$271.85
Smart Money Entry
92.2¢ → 97¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes3%
No97%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$7.7K
Total Shares7,985
Combined PnL+$271.85
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $1.7K | $5.4K | +$237.91 | 89% 1613-199 (1812) |
IN insidero | Noavg 96.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$3.77 | 76% 283-89 (372) |
 wish- | Noavg 92.3¢ | $556.66 | $702.62 | +$26.53 | 78% 1114-308 (1422) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 89.3¢ | $138.4 | $149.57 | +$11.18 | 77% 1330-396 (1726) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance98.1%
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$1.96
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
102.0
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x042a712f...213f14
Slug
will-openais-valuation-hit-low-500b-by-december-31-785-717