Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 10.0¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
🔄
Contrarian
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.4K
$-1.6K
30.6¢ → 10¢
-67% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $2.1K | $824.4 | $-1.3K | 50% 356-354 (710) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $228.52 | $371.34 | +$142.82 | 73% 2877-1050 (3927) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $398.8 | $122.16 | -$107.67 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
 Optimus-CTR | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $405.17 | $77.55 | -$327.63 | 61% 1182-748 (1930) |
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$2,143.55
Value
$824.4
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
50%
356-354 (710)
Tenebrus7Invested
$228.52
Value
$371.34
PnL
+$142.82
Record
73%
2877-1050 (3927)
Invested
$398.8
Value
$122.16
PnL
-$107.67
Record
36%
12736-22337 (35073)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$405.17
Value
$77.55
PnL
-$327.63
Record
61%
1182-748 (1930)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.