Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 6.1¢ · $947 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
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Contrarian
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$947.26
$0
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)
Outcome Probabilities
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.