Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚡
Medium
No
5
No 80%
$15.7K
$177.21
91.6¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
548h old
Late Entry
High
Score 90/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 91.7¢ | $12.8K | $12.7K | -$35.14 | 68% 4054-1938 (5992) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 90.2¢ | $11.0K | $1.1K | +$157.72 | 60% 966-638 (1604) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 92¢ | $1.0K | $925 | +$5 | 73% 2877-1050 (3927) |
LO Logan.CTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $507.85 | $850 | +$50 | 41% 636-904 (1540) |
 GollumGekko<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $92.36 | $92 | -$0.36 | 69% 2048-907 (2955) |
CarInvested
$12,778.46
Value
$12.7K
PnL
-$35.14
Record
68%
4054-1938 (5992)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$11,046.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$157.72
Record
60%
966-638 (1604)
Tenebrus7Invested
$1,000
Value
$925
PnL
+$5
Record
73%
2877-1050 (3927)
Invested
$507.85
Value
$850
PnL
+$50
Record
41%
636-904 (1540)
GollumGekko<$100Invested
$92.36
Value
$92
PnL
-$0.36
Record
69%
2048-907 (2955)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.