Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 76¢ · $984 held · ends Nov 1

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$984

Combined PnL

$73.99

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 76¢

-10% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$590.68

Total Shares777

Combined PnL-$70.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$393.33

Total Shares1,755

Combined PnL+$144.54

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

227h old

Late Entry

High

Score 75/100

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE Beyonddream	Noavg 90.7¢	$461.22	$386.54	-$74.69	62% 175-109 (284)
YE yesasdgfaskdfhaskCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$145.15	$317.82	+$172.67	37% 16-27 (43)
PR Prinas	Noavg 73.8¢	$22.14	$204.14	+$4.14	80% 268-67 (335)
AV AvamaxCTR	Yesavg 33.4¢	$100.2	$72	-$28.2	79% 358-93 (451)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$3.44	$3.51	+$0.07	59% 199-136 (335)

Beyonddream

Invested

$461.22

Value

$386.54

PnL

-$74.69

Record

62%

175-109 (284)

yesasdgfaskdfhaskCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.15

Value

$317.82

PnL

+$172.67

Record

37%

16-27 (43)

Prinas

Invested

$22.14

Value

$204.14

PnL

+$4.14

Record

80%

268-67 (335)

AvamaxCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.2

Value

$72

PnL

-$28.2

Record

79%

358-93 (451)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0.07

Record

59%

199-136 (335)

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

227h old

Late Entry

High

Score 75/100

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.