Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
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Contrarian
No
4
No 50%
$1.9K
$139.79
56.4¢ → 44¢
-22% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalekCTR | Noavg 57.2¢ | $958.52 | $811.85 | -$146.67 | 56% 951-745 (1696) |
 probability | Yesavg 43.5¢ | $28.3 | $807.56 | +$338.35 | 42% 1210-1656 (2866) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 53.9¢ | $315.35 | $229.53 | -$53.82 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
 Gohst<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.8 | $2.78 | +$1.93 | 49% 722-754 (1476) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.