Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$160.71

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 84.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,336

Combined PnL-$8.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$227.07

Total Shares1,514

Combined PnL+$169.53

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

541h old

Late Entry

High

Score 100/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Noavg 81.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$35.18	57% 787-601 (1388)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 81.4¢	$375.01	$380.01	+$5	57% 14637-10979 (25616)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$1.4K	$202.85	+$185.81	50% 852-865 (1717)
Car	Noavg 78.2¢	$163.31	$182.41	+$19.1	68% 4052-1938 (5990)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.87	$24.21	-$16.27	47% 1705-1901 (3606)
crypto-basenji<$100	Noavg 76¢	$19	$21.25	+$2.25	39% 146-229 (375)

paddaa

Invested

$1,229.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$35.18

Record

57%

787-601 (1388)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$375.01

Value

$380.01

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

14637-10979 (25616)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,362.16

Value

$202.85

PnL

+$185.81

Record

50%

852-865 (1717)

Car

Invested

$163.31

Value

$182.41

PnL

+$19.1

Record

68%

4052-1938 (5990)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.87

Value

$24.21

PnL

-$16.27

Record

47%

1705-1901 (3606)

crypto-basenji<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

39%

146-229 (375)

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

541h old

Late Entry

High

Score 100/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.5%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.