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Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$8.0K
Combined PnL
$2.8K
Smart Money Entry
45.8¢ → 94¢
+105% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes6%
No94%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$7.9K
Total Shares8,375
Combined PnL+$3.7K
Yes1 trader
Total Value$149.79
Total Shares2,496
Combined PnL-$916.97
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiernanMeister | Noavg 45.1¢ | $2.1K | $7.8K | +$3.7K | 52% 974-898 (1872) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $1.1K | $149.79 | -$916.97 | 57% 787-601 (1388) |
 archaic | Noavg 94.4¢ | $107.25 | $108.55 | -$1.02 | 84% 1803-332 (2135) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance95.2%
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$5.05
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
105.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x1f214481...2e0006
Slug
will-gregory-nthatisi-be-the-next-mayor-of-mangaung