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Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $10K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 33%
Total Value
$9.6K
Combined PnL
$454.96
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes8%
No92%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$8.9K
Total Shares9,670
Combined PnL+$2.0K
Yes2 traders
Total Value$647.3
Total Shares8,352
Combined PnL$-1.6K
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiernanMeister | Noavg 78¢ | $74.23 | $8.9K | +$2.0K | 52% 974-898 (1872) |
 GohstCTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $1.9K | $628.81 | $-1.6K | 49% 722-754 (1476) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $9.54 | $18.49 | -$0.72 | 48% 1995-2156 (4151) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance93.5%
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$6.95
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
106.9
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xad0e49d8...ee45e8
Slug
will-gladyz-butanda-macias-win-the-2027-michoacan-governor-election-20260803173853371