Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Garry Thind win the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 3.0¢ · $181 held · ended Oct 25
🔄
Contrarian
No
4
No 25%
$181.14
-$22.79
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST StraddleSeller<$100 | Yesavg 68.3¢ | $48.48 | $68.87 | +$15.42 | 58% 142-102 (244) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 28.4¢ | $272.53 | $62.84 | -$44.68 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
 KimchiCapital<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $29.27 | $38.9 | +$6.82 | 73% 365-137 (502) |
 mrworldwide<$100 | Yesavg 96.6¢ | $10.49 | $10.53 | -$0.35 | 67% 667-336 (1003) |
Invested
$48.48
Value
$68.87
PnL
+$15.42
Record
58%
142-102 (244)
Invested
$272.53
Value
$62.84
PnL
-$44.68
Record
36%
12736-22337 (35073)
KimchiCapital<$100Invested
$29.27
Value
$38.9
PnL
+$6.82
Record
73%
365-137 (502)
mrworldwide<$100Invested
$10.49
Value
$10.53
PnL
-$0.35
Record
67%
667-336 (1003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.