Back to Markets
Will Garry Begg win the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $37 held · ended Oct 25
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
2
No 50%
Total Value
$36.62
Combined PnL
$14.38
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes6%
No94%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$26.9
Total Shares29
Combined PnL-$0.98
Yes1 trader
Total Value$9.72
Total Shares152
Combined PnL+$15.35
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $27.88 | $26.9 | -$0.98 | 67% 667-336 (1003) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $21.86 | $9.72 | +$15.35 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance94.8%
93.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$5.48
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
105.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xe9b07571...f723ba
Slug
will-garry-begg-win-the-next-surrey-guildford-british-columbia-legislative-assembly-election