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Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
4
No 100%
Total Value
$8.7K
Combined PnL
$53.05
Smart Money Entry
97.3¢ → 98.4¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes2%
No98%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$8.7K
Total Shares8,854
Combined PnL+$53.05
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 98¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | +$13.05 | 60% 780-529 (1309) |
 scout | Noavg 97.1¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$9.2 | 91% 735-76 (811) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 93¢ | $435.94 | $682.75 | +$32.08 | 82% 1708-377 (2085) |
 Talophex | Noavg 98.7¢ | $405.61 | $401.86 | -$1.28 | 91% 892-92 (984) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance99.4%
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.62
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.6
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xe5ee7875...8fe4a9
Slug
will-farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-be-under-iranian-control-by-october-31-2026